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Friday, August 21, 2009

Succession in Egypt: Who follows Mubarak?

Q+A - Succession in Egypt: Who follows Mubarak?

REUTERS - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, 81, sidestepped a question in a U.S. interview broadcast this week about whether he would run for president again and said he had never discussed with his son the idea of handing power to him.

Below are some questions about the succession in Egypt which have become more frequent as Mubarak has aged in office without giving any hint of how Egypt will be ruled after him:

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak speaks during a joint news conference with Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at the Egyptian-Italian summit in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh May 12, 2009. (REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Files)

WHY ARE QUESTIONS OF SUCCESSION SO PERSISTENT?

Mubarak, who came to power in 1981 after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat, has never appointed a vice-president, the position he held under Sadat.

His failure to indicate who might follow him have encouraged speculation. Rumours gather momentum whenever question marks are raised about Mubarak's health.

Most recently, his failure to attend the funeral of his grandson, whose death in May prompted Mubarak to postpone his trip to Washington, sparked gossip although he then emerged to give a long interview to state television and another to the U.S. network PBS which was broadcast on Monday.

WHAT DOES MUBARAK SAY ABOUT HIS FUTURE PLANS?

In interviews with foreign media, which have posed such questions over the years, he typically sidesteps the issue.

When asked in his latest interview if he planned to run for a sixth term of office in 2011, Mubarak said whether "to renew or not to renew" his term was not his main concern. "I am not thinking about this now," he said, according to a transcript.

WHO DO MOST PEOPLE EXPECT WILL COME AFTER MUBARAK?

The most common view is that his son Gamal, 45, a former investment banker, is being groomed for office. He already holds a senior post in Mubarak's ruling party, the National Democratic Party (NDP), where he heads the policy secretariat.

Both father and son deny such plans. Mubarak repeated this position in his latest interview. "Look, this was never raised between myself and my son," he said according to the transcript.

Echoing comments often made by Egyptian officials who leave the door open by saying Gamal would have the right to run like any other Egyptian, Mubarak added: "The choice and election of the president is open to the population in its entirety. It is the decision of the population who would represent people."

IS A TRANSFER OF POWER FROM FATHER TO SON A DONE DEAL?

Analysts say not, even if it does seem the most likely scenario. First, some other names are mentioned as potential future presidents, and second, Gamal may not have the power base or influence to secure the presidency.

The most common of the alternative names discussed is Omar Suleiman, Egypt's intelligence chief. He has emerged from the shadows in recent years to play an increasingly public role as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, and between rival Palestinian factions.

Given that Middle East peace mediation is a topic on which Mubarak has staked much of his international reputation, Suleiman is seen as a close ally. Even if not a future president, many say he may be a kingmaker.

Another name that occasionally crops up is that of Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian soon-to-be-former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Few analysts, however, see him as a serious contender and say talk about ElBaradei probably reflects his prominence on the world stage rather than being based on a realistic assessment of his influence or interest in securing Egypt's top job.

While the list of names quickly dries up, analysts say potential military contenders cannot be ruled out even if their identities are not public knowledge. All three presidents since the monarchy was overthrown in 1952 -- Gamal Abdel Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak -- have been military men.

HOW EASY WOULD IT BE FOR GAMAL MUBARAK TO TAKE POWER?

Much could depend on whether Mubarak dies in office or decides to step aside to make way for a successor.

Under the constitution, if the president dies in office, the speaker of parliament, now Fathi Sorour who is a member of the NDP, takes over for up to 60 days until a presidential election can be held.

Officials say constitutional amendments of recent years opened up the field in any presidential race but critics say the changes make it almost impossible for a serious challenge from outside the establishment to the NDP's chosen candidate.

However, under such a transition, the military could start flexing its muscles, possibly derailing any attempt to install Gamal, who has no military background, analysts say.

A handover while Mubarak is still alive could give Gamal a backer that the military or any other rival would find more difficult to compete with.

Any scenario is fraught with challenges. Gamal is seen as having strong support from the business community. His allies hold key economic portfolios in the cabinet, which has pushed through a range of economic liberalisation measures. However, analysts say the business community cannot be guaranteed to back him at the final hurdle.

Gamal has sought to appeal to the young. This month, he held an online video forum, answering questions sent via the social networking website Facebook and other sites. This won him praise in the official press, while independent newspapers noted he dodged questions, in particular on inheriting power.

Analysts say it is less clear whether this or other tactics can win the president's son popular support in a country of 77 million people, about one-fifth of whom live below the poverty line.

Source:Reuters

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