Mr. President, Nigeria is going down

By Simon Kolawole

Mr. President, I don't know how you would take this, but there is no nicer way of putting it - Nigeria is going down. I have watched, helplessly, in the last few months as things appear to be spinning out of control on all fronts. What are you up to? At times, I wonder if you're deliberately quiet or you are just too overwhelmed with the circumstances in which you have found yourself. The simplest of things appear to be too difficult for your administration to handle. Or maybe you just do not see any problems yet, right?

I would start with electricity. I know quite well that you have promised 6,000 megawatts by December 2009, which is very impressive, even if belated. At least, we have something to hold you to. At 6,000mw, we should enjoy some power supply. That alone should reduce diesel and petrol consumption, lower the cost of production, improve economic productivity and bring some businesses back to life. However, I am already hearing well-made excuses on why we may no longer meet the target because of gas shortage as a result of militant activities - which I will come back to later.

Where I live, we've not had electricity for three weeks - and nothing is wrong with our "transformer" as you would expect. I'm tempted to ask PHCN to come and remove their cables in front of my house, if not I will start hanging my laundry on those hopeless cables. I thought my situation was worse until I shared my story with some of my colleagues who said I was lucky! They actually envied me. One of them said he has not had power supply in six weeks. I quietly thanked my stars. At least my situation is better. At the back of my mind, I do not really care about the megawatts of darkness around me. I assume I am living in a village without electricity; so I expect to call my generator to duty every night. That is a fair deal.

What I cannot understand, Mr. President, is that we're experiencing severe power shortage in a rainy season. Conventional wisdom is that power supply improves during the rainy season because our dams are working at full strength; the hydro plants thus generate more electricity. Since we're always complaining about gas shortage (the complaint didn't start with militant activities), the rainy season brings - or used to bring - relief. In fact, I used to joke that it is when we don't desperately need power supply that we get it most: when the rains fall, the weather is friendly and everyone is entitled to natural AC. The conventional wisdom has now been turned on its head. Or are we going to say militants have bombed the water too - in addition to the gas pipelines? Something is terribly wrong.

We did not suddenly find ourselves in this tight corner, Mr. President. Think again. When you came in 2007, the plan on ground was that we would generate 6000mw by December of that year. Contracts had been awarded by the previous government towards meeting the target. I suspect that because your government was new, some people persuaded you that you needed to deal with "new" contractors. For nearly two years, various interest groups in and outside your government fought to take over these projects. You stopped paying the contractors. You and the House of Representatives embarked on a probe. Grammar, grammar, grammar. Nothing came out of the probes - apart from the fact that we keep living in darkness.

At the end of the day, we wasted two years blowing hot air. The economy has been going down, but I have seen nothing to suggest that you are deeply worried or in a hurry to address issues. Now, without exaggerating, I have never witnessed this prolonged spell of power cuts in Nigeria since 1998-99. It has never been this bad, I make bold to say. But this has not happened by accident - it is just a reflection of your attitude, Mr. President, to the condition of this country. With due respect, Alhaji, you're not in touch with reality. Once in a while, you say the right things about the condition of this country, but your speed tells it all: there is no sense of urgency. The power emergency you promised to declare "within 100 days of assuming office" in 2007 is one of the sweetest sound bites from you - but where is the beef? Everyday, since 2007, we hear billion billons being approved for one power project or the other, but ask me what the end product is.

Dear President, are you aware our crude oil export has gone down dramatically? I guess you're aware. From the height of nearly three million barrels per day three years ago, we're now hovering just about a million barrels as militants blow up one oil facility after the other. Did you say it's not your fault? Yes, it's not your fault. You didn't create the problems of the Niger Delta. You didn't create the gangs. You didn't found the militant groups. Only a fool will disagree with that. However, what did you do, on assumption of office, to address this problem? What was your strategy? How well has it worked?

You had a chance, dear President, you had a chance to do something. When you came to power, the militants declared a ceasefire, claiming that they wanted to give you a chance. But, you see, the hawks around you would not let go. They kept telling you not to negotiate with the militants. They urged you on to deal with them. They're criminals! Stupid idiots, all! Go for them! Crush them! That was the first mistake you made - you listened to these war mongers who created the impression that they could crush the militants. Two years on, have they succeeded? Are the militants no longer causing fatal damage to the economy? Are you smiling now?

The mistake you made, Alhaji, was that you did not learn from ex-US President George Bush. After 9/11, he went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, promising to smoke out terrorists with all his military might. He went to Afghanistan in 2001 - the year of the attack - and dethroned the Taliban. Has terrorism come to an end? He jumped to Iraq and dethroned Saddam Hussein. Has terrorism come to an end? He believed bombs and more bombs would curb terrorism. Ask him again how far this has gone.

In 2007, when the militants halted their attacks in the Niger Delta, it was a big opportunity for you to play the statesman and bring peace to the region. But the hawks would have none of it. Pronto, they went and arrested Henry Okah, one of the leading figures in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), and detained him and put him on trial. The end result was that militant activities were resumed, oil installations were getting destroyed day by day, innocent people were getting killed and the economy started bleeding. After almost two years, Mr. President, you discontinued the trial of Okah and got him released. When you knew, Alhaji, that the possibility of negotiation was there, why did you wait until the economy had been so badly hurt before choosing that option? Who advised you to arrest Okah in the first place?

To be sure, Mr. President, I do not support militant activities. In truth, I harbour serious suspicion about their intentions. Many of them are saying the right things, but the intention is suspect. I support justice and fairness in the Niger Delta, but I am suspicious of some of the agitators. I also do not like a situation where Nigerian soldiers are killed, not by enemy troops, but by their own compatriots. I also have questions to ask about the role being played by some politicians and government officials who benefit from these destructive activities. But, just like terrorists, militants are real human beings. They constitute real threat. They inflict real damages. And, to cap it all, our security forces do not have the capacity to incapacitate them - as the militants have clearly shown in recent times. You cannot wish them away. They are like the bull in the china shop.

So what took you so long, Mr. President? When did you realise there are non-combat ways of resolving the crisis? Why did you allow the hawks to claw you into a corner before embarking on this tactical retreat? You can see the results. The refineries are down, starved of crude oil supply as pipelines go up in flames and get twisted every now and then; our oil exports contracts now depend largely on "force majeur"; our thermal plants are crying for gas as power generation hits its worst in recent years; today, we hear one project or the other that cannot be done because of militant activities in the Niger Delta. Cleverly, those who promised us 6,000mw by December are now qualifying their optimism with "but for militant activities..." - showing clearly that the government underrated the militants when it was making those promises.

Mr. President, take a look round and you see a country lying almost prostrate. Take a roll call of different unions on strike or threatening to go on strike - health workers, midwives, university teachers, electricity workers, postal workers, radio and TV workers, and so on and so forth. There is something I notice: they seem to have lost faith in your government. They seem to be saying that your government does not just care about their plight. They may be right, they may be wrong - but that is a feeling that many Nigerians have. They have observed you over the last two years and concluded that there is no use expecting anything from you. What a sad story.

Your attitude to Lagos, Your Excellency, is also baffling. The least I expected from you is that you would discontinue your predecessor's anti-Lagos policy. Lagos, whether we like it or not, is the productive base of the Nigerian economy. There is nothing anyone can do about that, not in the foreseeable future. Why federal roads in the state would remain untouched in the two years of your administration is beyond what I can believe. It doesn't make sense. Everyday, Abuja roads are undergoing repair and construction - while Lagos roads are neglected. You behave, sir, as if you're the President of Abuja and not the President of the 36-state federation of Nigeria. If Lagos is the economic base of Nigeria, it makes sense that it should not be neglected.

All I have done, Mr. President, is to tell you what I suspect you know - that Nigeria, under your watch, can be better than this. But I refuse to give up on you. We have no other country but Nigeria. We deserve something better. It is not too late for you to wake up to your responsibilities and treat the Nigerian condition as urgent and critical. Make haste, Your Excellency.
(Source: www.thisdayonline.com)